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In the absence of transformative technology for global carbon capture and/or geoengineering, human civilization as we know it is doomed. "Looking back over the past 12 months, it’s clear that the warning signs have been getting louder, and some climate scientists believe it may already be too late to save ourselves from disaster. Back in February, for instance, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicated that 42 percent of the world’s population are living in areas deemed “highly vulnerable” to the impacts of climate change. "Commenting on the report, UN secretary-general António Guterres said the globe is now doomed to become an “atlas of suffering”. "In May, meanwhile, research indicated that there is a 48 percent chance that global temperatures will rise to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels within the next five years. This represents the lower acceptable limit of warming established by the Paris Agreement of 2015, which aims to prevent

I first read this story in Psychology Today when I was in junior high and just found it again online. I still think about it when I see those ammosexual ads on FB touting concealed carry and large ammo magazines. Tsukahara Bokuden, a legendary sword fighter in 16th century Japan, was best known for his wisdom. Bokuden had three sons. He wanted to test them to see how prepared they were to be independent. To do so, he put a heavy headrest on top of the door and left it partly open. Then, he called his oldest son, Hikoshiro. Hikoshiro walked up to the door and pushed it carefully. He noticed that it was heavier than normal and figured that something had changed. Hikoshiro carefully felt along the upper edge of the door. There, he discovered the headrest and gently took it down. Bokuden was pleased with his son, but he didn’t show it. Later, his son left the room and left the headrest where he had found it. A few days later, Bokuden tested his second son the same way. When his father call

I remain an EV skeptic. Most electricity in America comes from burning hydrocarbon-based fuel, so EVs are really just running on hydrocarbon, just like your infernal combustion engines, only less efficiently because of the conversion of hydrocarbon to electricity (2nd law, peeps). If you're interested in reducing your carbon foot print, you need to walk more, bike more, take public transportation, buy locally sourced food, eat less meat. Granted, most people won't see you do this the way they'll notice your Tesla, but it will make more of a difference than owning an EV will. There are plenty of other unanswered questions about EVs: "The problem with urban charging stations - difficult to have enough in places where significant numbers of people don't have off street parking - is another. The reality of cobalt mining is yet another. "The charging station problem especially seems to be one where the answer is, "oh, we'll figure it out," and I'm

I just finished reading “Saving Ryan” by Emil Kakkis. Kakkis is a physician who pioneered enzyme replacement therapy for Mucopolysaccharidosis I (MPS I), a progressive and fatal disease. The story is about the patients and their families who struggle with the disease and Emil’s struggle to deliver life-enhancing therapy against terribly long odds. The Ryan of the book’s title is a kid with MPS I. His working class parents were not content to watch Ryan decline and die in his first or second decade. MPS I is an extremely rare disease, so big pharma sees no potential for return on investment for developing treatments or cures. Ryan’s parents start a foundation to raise money for a cure. I seldom read lay science/medical books because they usually spend too much time explaining technical details that I already understand, and I find myself wincing at the imprecision and outright errors. This book avoids that pitfall, both by being scientifically sound and concise, and by keeping the f

  During the interregnum between the Christmas and New Years, here's a useful reflection on the history of religious tolerance in the US featuring Rhode Island*: The Jewish community in the United States is as old as its democracy. In August 1790, George Washington sent a letter to the Hebrew Congregation in Newport, R.I., thanking them for their well wishes. He wrote: “The Citizens of the United States of America have a right to applaud themselves for having given to mankind examples of an enlarged and liberal policy — a policy worthy of imitation. All possess alike liberty of conscience and immunities of citizenship.” He added, “It is now no more that toleration is spoken of as if it were the indulgence of one class of people that another enjoyed the exercise of their inherent natural rights, for, happily, the Government of the United States, which gives to bigotry no sanction, to persecution no assistance, requires only that they who live under its protection should demean thems

When this story first broke, it wasn't clear from the articles I read that these asylum seekers came from Texas, although the Republican states Texas, Arizona and Florida has previously dumped migrants in Democratic cities. Now the barbarism of Republican governors is on display again: "About 110 to 130 men, women and children got off the buses outside the Naval Observatory on Saturday night in 18-degree weather after a two-day journey from South Texas, according to the Migrant Solidarity Mutual Aid Network. On the coldest Christmas Eve day on record in the District, some migrants were bundled up in blankets as they were greeted by volunteers who had received word that Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, had sent the caravan." Apparently, some were dressed in shorts and T shirts. Jesus weeps. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/12/25/nation/migrants-bused-texas-arrive-vice-president-harriss-house-frigid-christmas-eve/?fbclid=IwAR1J4qWWPvxKBJAWjQZAiUDigCbd6tj-mxVoUPYJZ

Just finished “Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the making of a postwar stalemate” by Mary Sarotte. It is an excellent insight into current events in Ukraine today. The title comes from the assurance given by then-Secretary of State James Baker to Mikhail Gorbachev that German reunification would mean “not one inch eastward” in NATO expansion. This phrase has inspired much finger-pointing by Russia and its Western defenders, since NATO did indeed expand eastward, up to the Russian border in the case of Poland and the Baltics. The history unfolded by Sarotte is nuanced and detailed. To simplify greatly, the Soviet Union under Gorbachev and later Russia under Yeltsen was in desperate need of hard currency, and Western leaders like Helmut Kohl, François Mitterrand and Bill Clinton were able to buy off Russian resistance. Although many or most of the states in the former Soviet Union and their satellites were eager to join NATO, there was considerable debate in the west on how many new

All God's critters got viruses. Even bacteria. Back in the 1940s, there was extensive research to use viruses that kill bacteria (called bacteriophages, or phages) as therapy. Of course, this was also the time that antibiotics were discovered and so the phage research was marginalized. Fast forward to the 21st century, when antibiotic overuse has resulted in multidrug resistant bacteria. Fortunately, research scientists in the former Soviet state of Georgia still have retained the expertise to exploit phage therapy. I have a feeling we're going to see more of this. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/08/health/phage-superbug-killer-life-itself-wellness/index.html

Elon Musk is upset that people can track his private jet everywhere using public information. His company, Tesla, knows the location of every Tesla owner on the planet. If he's upset that somebody else might know every airport he flew into, tough luck.

"But the GOP report is silent on other efforts to disrupt the transfer of presidential power after the 2020 election and selective in its criticism of political leaders and their culpability in the security breakdowns on January 6. The report resurfaces largely unfounded allegations to cast blame on Democrats like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi while glossing over former President Donald Trump’s own role." Sad. https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/21/politics/republican-january-6-report-capitol-police/index.html

Trump's IRS largely ignored his tax returns. In other news, dog bites man, water is wet, the sun rose in the east and the pope is Catholic. "The IRS dozed through most of its obligations to audit Trump during his presidency, the panel found, concluding that it violated an agency program which mandates that the tax returns of every President be audited annually. In Trump’s case, the returns weren’t audited for his first two years in office — when Republicans held a governing trifecta." https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-got-stunningly-lax-irs-treatment-while-potus-house-finds

Look, it hurts to lose. I know from personal experience. But if you've never failed, you've never tried. This is especially true in politics. Having lived and voted in red states most of my adult life, I've seen my candidates lose to clearly inferior opponents. Twice, I've seen the candidate I voted for and who won the most voted from the American people lose the White House to an opponent appointed by the electoral college against the will of voters. Now we have the spectacle of one party that would rather have courts or armed mobs overturn their loss rather than face the fact that they were rejected. Sorry, but this is a party from (as Donald Trump would say) a shit hole country, not America. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/lake-election-lawsuit-claims-dismissed

"Today shows that a mistake was made in pardoning Nixon and sparing him prosecution and possibly jail. Had Nixon had to face more dire consequences than exile, it would have presented an important admonition to later Presidents that they could not break the law without suffering." ~Michael Beschloss, 2022 Is he eating his words, or did they just go down the memory hole? "Gerald Ford pardoning Nixon, I think, was courageous, and in retrospect, wise. And one of the things that I think is actually quite lovely is that Gerald Ford said, before he died, that one of the things that emotionally meant the most to him was getting the Profile In Courage Award, because it made him feel that, despite the fact that he had gone through all that flack and people denouncing him, saying, “Did you make a secret deal with Nixon to get the presidency in exchange for a pardon?” he felt that in the end, he had been vindicated. And one thing that’s sort of pointed about history is that oftent

As I've said before, cryptocurrency isn't money, in the sense that it isn't a store of value. Cryptocurrency is more like a collectable (tulip bulbs, art work). At least with stocks (pace Twitter), you're investing in a real company with real assets. And the dollar is still backed by the full faith and credit of the US, at least until the GOP takes over the House in January. Cryptocurrency is entirely virtual and backed by vapor. OTOH, crypto is still a miniscule part of the total economy, so the fact that it lost tens of billions (with a b) in supposed value doesn't mean much in the larger scheme. "Total crypto AUM is down two-thirds over the past year and currently amounts to about $20 billion. "Give or take a bit, AUM for normal assets (i.e., money) comes to about $110 trillion, with a T. This means that crypto accounts for ~0.002% of all assets under management worldwide. "If you're wondering why nobody on Wall Street seems to care much about

Look, I'd prefer an America with reliable, efficient public transportation. Like in Manhattan. Or the DC Metro. But that isn't going to happen in my lifetime. If I live long enough, someone is going to extend their hand and ask for my car keys, because I will no longer be safe behind the wheel. Being able to summon a self-driving car for a trip to the grocery store, the dentist or a restaurant would certainly be handy. There's a lot of chatter from Elon Musk (IKR?) about self-driving cars in the next year or two, but with cars, the safety bar for passengers and others sharing the roadway is very high. Maybe the manufacturers can get the same exemption that firearms manufacturers get. Until then, here's a useful heuristic: when AI gets to the point where you'll let your youngest child (or grandchild) cross streets of mostly self-driving cars.

You may have read where outgoing AZ governor Ducey is building a border wall out of railroad boxcars. It is illegal and environmentally destructive, and it is a waste of taxpayer money since the incoming governor will remove it. Meanwhile, Kevin Drum has a suggestion: "Isn't it also God's gift to coyotes and their customers? "Stop me if I'm wrong about anything here. Step 1 is to pick a likely looking spot and then cut a big hole into one of the containers. It doesn't need to be anything fancy since no one on the Mexico side of the border is going to care. "Step 2 is to cut a smallish hole on the other side of the container. But this time keep the metal, attach a couple of hinges, and create a makeshift hatch. "Step 3 is to outfit your new man cave any way you want. Maybe a battery-operated fridge! Some nice chairs. Blankets and pillows. Plenty of water. "Step 4 is to guide a group of aspiring immigrants to your container, where they can rest an

I posted yesterday about Trumps NFT trading cards. Evidently, after announcing his 2024 campaign, Trump is going after the middle school boy demographic. Josh Marshall has a paywalled post about whether Trump will be the 2024 GOP nominee. Here are the nut grafs: "There seems little doubt that another Republican could defeat Donald Trump for the nomination, though I’m skeptical of whether that person is Ron DeSantis. The more operative question is what you do with Trump after you beat him. Normally you have a primary battle and one candidate comes out on top. It may be a cakewalk or a brutal slog. But one candidate gets the most delegates and the others fall in behind that candidate. "It’s very difficult, though, to imagine Donald Trump losing a hard fought primary struggle and then just gracefully falling in line as a surrogate for the guy who beat him. In fact, it’s basically impossible to imagine that happening." Trump appears to be swirling the drain. His polls are ev

I grew up in Tennessee. I went to UT for college. After college, I moved out of state and never returned. We've never considered returning, nor will we. "A huge majority of voters, 75%, want abortion to be legal in cases of rape and incest. That’s not surprising, we see numbers like that in most states. But here’s the thing: Less than 20% of the people in Tennessee know that the state’s abortion ban has no exceptions. Thirty-six percent said they didn’t know what the state’s ban entailed, 23% thought the state had exceptions for rape, incest and life, and 21% thought it was legal with limits at various gestational ages." Sad. https://jessica.substack.com/p/abortion-every-day-121422#details

For as long as I've been aware, the American right has accused those who disagree with them of being "socialists" or "communists." This was certainly the strategy of Sen. Joe McCarthy, who used it reflexively. I've spent a lot of time reading about "socialism" and "communism," having read histories of Russia, the Soviet Union, the Russian Revolution and the Chinese Revolution, as well as biographies of Marx, Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin, Mao and Castro. Once you educate yourself, you learn that the governments of the USSR and Red China and their satellites weren't socialist or communist, they are autocratic dictatorships. They used "socialism" and "communism" as branding to disguise their totalitarianism. And the West was complicit, by using "socialist" and "communist" as synonyms for totalitarianism, even while embracing dictators who were allies. Look, if you actually read and understand Marx, what

Perhaps you've hear that fusion energy generation has achieved a net positive output. Uh, no. We are still far from that holy grail, and even farther from commercial scale-up. I'll be dead before that happens. "The very final stage, where lasers heat up the fusion fuel, does indeed produce a net energy gain. This is known as Q, and in this example equals 1.25, which is about what we're expecting DOE to announce tomorrow. "But the wall-to-wall energy consumption is quite different: Taken as a whole, the system is likely to produce about 1-2% of the energy initially used to charge the capacitors that drive the lasers. This is nowhere close to net energy gain." https://jabberwocking.com/warning-the-nif-fusion-facility-didnt-really-produce-a-net-energy-gain/

 “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" ~George Santayana There are some who seem to believe that Biden is appeasing Putin in Ukraine. Their analogy is to the "appeasement" of Hitler after the Nazi invasion of the Sudetenland which has sometimes been claimed to have led to WWII. While that claim is at best tenuous, it has been used to justify the US quagmires in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Look, Ho Chi Minh was not Hitler. Osama bin Laden was not Hitler. Saddam Hussein was not Hitler. And Putin is not a 70 year-old version of Hitler and Russia is not a modern-day Nazi Germany. I'm a big fan of learning history and learning from history. One thing you learn if you do that is that generals often end up trying to fight the last war. Don't fall for this mistake. This isn't the first time Russia has fallen into the Ukraine quagmire, and Putin made a huge mistake trying to conquer Ukraine. It is a sign of weakness, not strength, that Pu

This is all about setting the stage for tactical nukes in Ukraine if things continue to go South for Putin. He's already turning Ukraine into smoldering ruins. A few nukes will just speed the process for him. https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/09/europe/russia-putin-nuclear-weapons-intl/index.html

I'm seeing a lot of bleating online about the Brittney Griner/Viktor Bout trade. Some refer to Bout as the most dangerous person in the world. Look, Vladimir Putin is far more dangerous by orders of magnitude, since he has it within his power to destroy the planet. And that's just one example. One type of objection is "what about Paul Whelan?" Look, I'd like to see Paul freed too, but even Paul's sister is quoted as saying she's glad for Brittney. Just because Brittney is a gay, tattooed woman of color doesn't make her life less valuable than a White man's. As for Bout, he's been behind bars now for nearly 15 years. Ten of those years were spent at a medium security prison in Marion IL. If he were the most dangerous person in the world, why wasn't he in a supermax prison? Kevin Drum has some adult perspective on this issue. I recommend reading this: https://jabberwocking.com/was-it-right-to-swap-brittney-griner-innocent-basketball-player-f

So now misinformation is the new "alternative facts?" The modern GOP is the party of doublespeak. George Orwell was describing the Soviet utopia in his novel "1984"; the modern GOP is the American Bolshevik party, sowing chaos and doubt to make the masses welcome totalitarian order. Fox is the Pravda of the GOP. Tucker Carlson is the commissar of disinformation. https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/tucker-carlson-misinformation-can-be-true

The House GOP is preparing to serve up seconds on the nothingburger that was Benghazi!!!!1! Kevin Drum over at jabberwocking.com has an explainer if you're not yet up to speed on the Hunter Biden laptopgate scandal that got Donald Trump to call for the U.S. Constitution to be overturned. The nut grafs: "And where are we with the Hunter laptop story today? Same as always, I'd say. Most of the juicy details—drug use, dick pics, money problems, 10% for the "big guy," etc.—have been public for a long time. Hunter has been under investigation for tax problems for a few years, and charges might drop soon. But even if they do, there's simply never been anything implicating Joe Biden in any of it. "There still isn't, but Republicans have announced that they plan to hold Benghazi-style hearings about the Hunter Biden laptop as soon as they take over the House in January. Once again, they're trying to relive past triumphs because they have nothing else on

Looks like the right-wing nutjob GOP Congress is planning Benghazi-like hearings for Tony Fauci. If they follow through, they deserve our unalloyed contempt. Fauci is a national treasure. "During the most difficult times of the AIDS and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics, Tony has been a model of calm, yet decisive, leadership despite often harsh criticism from those with different views. He has also advised the ID community, often through articles in JID and elsewhere, on what the NIAID research priorities would be on individual topics such as antimicrobial resistance, malaria, sexually transmitted infections, opioids and infectious diseases, tuberculosis, microbiota, HIV/AIDS, microbiota, and COVID-19 [7–14]. These efforts have helped shape grant preparation and submission for many investigators. "Tony Fauci will leave his position as NIAID Director at the end of this year, having served in this role for almost 4 decades. He has successfully fought for (1) increa

I've posted before about the grift that is cryptocurrency. Can you make money in crypto? Sure. You can make money at a casino, too. But that's gambling, not investing. "Sam Bankman-Fried had $100,000 left in his bank account last time he checked. . . . His personal wealth at one point reached $26.5 billion." I guess if he'd been an actual Bankman, he's be FDIC-insured. https://www.axios.com/2022/11/29/sam-bankman-fried-100000-ftx-cftc-regulation?fbclid=IwAR1ECKNdQRrQFe5Ag6qp3WRghb66LpEK7q1mml15jI6RpH231cjSOzX4vWs

This Thanksgiving Day holiday for us was dominated by young people (disclaimer: I was the oldest of all). It got me to thinking how much the world has changed since I was last the age of some of these people. One of the benefits of a long life is that you get to see how stories that began when you were young play out decades later. The boundaries between interesting, surprising and amazing are indistinct and ultimately personal, so you may have a different list depending on what your expectations were. Here’s my list of things I didn't think I'd live to see, assembled over the space of about ten minutes: Humans walk on the moon Human genome sequenced Black holes discovered The internet Fall of the Soviet Union Gay marriage legalized A Black president