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Showing posts from April, 2020

Dispatch from the frontiers of COVID-19

The major cellular gateway for infecting SARS-CoV-2 appears to be a cell-surface protein called ACE2. But it turns out that not all of our ACE2 is anchored to the surface of cells. Circulating soluble ACE2 protein could glom onto infectious virus, preventing it from finding cells to infect. Higher levels of soluble ACE2 in children and genetic variation in soluble ACE2 may explain the resistance of children and asymptomatic carriers. "By a buffering effect, and much like neutralizing antibodies, soluble ACE2 may help children and asymptomatic people to better counteract virus spreading to a cell target. On one hand, this could help them to contain infection. On the other hand, this could also let these carriers be an important reservoir of circulating virus, and so this deserve much of our attention in the near future." https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/…/fped.2020.00206/full…

Silver linings

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One of the benefits of the COVID-19 regs is that traffic is way down. For me, this translates into being able to ride my bike on weekdays without the usual weekday traffic. But you may have read a recent study recommending absurd social distancing for those who exercise outdoors. Ignore it. “The risks of virus transmissibility in the air outdoors is likely quite low in those contexts, although this risk hasn’t been definitively measured,” Rasmussen said. “Outside, things like sunlight, wind, rain, ambient temperature, and humidity can affect virus infectivity and transmissibility, so while we can’t say there’s zero risk, it’s likely low unless you are engaging in activities as part of a large crowd (such as a protest). Solitary outdoor exercise is likely low-risk.” Understanding the key concepts of transmissibility and infectious dose should reassure you. About this website VOX.COM Why you’re unlikely to get the coronavirus from runners or cy

What's up with oil?

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You may have seen the big plunge in oil prices as Russia and Saudi Arabia have tried to engineer the collapse of the US fracking industry. But the bigger picture is that oil prices have been in pretty steady decline for the past couple of months.   Will this trend reverse, now that some read states have announced their preference for business over citizen lives? Confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US hit a new peak yesterday; will there be a new peak in deaths   in the next week? Was yesterday a peak, or a false summit?     About this website MOTHERJONES.COM Oil didn't "crater" today. It's been cratering for two months.

COVID-19 and the economy:suicide watch?

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I’ve read claims that the number of suicides due to bankruptcy and job loss during the current economic recession will exceed the number of people who will die from COVID-19 itself. In other words, the shutdowns of businesses, schools and public places occasioned by the pandemic will be worse than the disease. Setting aside that we don’t actually know how many people will die from COVID-18 this year, how many people will permanently lose their jobs or go bankrupt this year,   or how many people will respond to economic setback by doing themselves in, let’s do the ghoulish work of inspecting that claim. The COVID-19 deaths this year to date in the US is 45,000. In the entire year of 2018, there were 48,000 suicides. So even if starting tomorrow, there wasn’t a single additional COVID-19 death, the number of suicides would have to be a 50% increase over background to equal the people who have died from the virus. More likely, the number of COVID-19 in the US will at least double from

COVID-19 and the pace of science

One of the insights I've gained from the COVID-19 pandemic is the realization that most people have no idea how science is done and how evidence-based decision making works. Even among physicians, the fact that a term like "evidence-based medicine" exists tells you that there remains a lot of daylight between science and clinical practice. Sciencing is hard, slow, tedious. And it is done by humans, so it is fraught with unintended errors. Fortunately, good science is self-correcting. Contrary to what the radical right wing will tell you, it is iconoclasm, not conformity, that is ultimately rewarded. The scientist who proves that the overwhelming evidence for anthropogenic globals warming is a mirage will win a Nobel Prize and deserve our undying gratitude. In the age of the COVID-19 pandemic, people want a avuncular voice to tell them what is happening now and what will happen in the future. COVID-19 is too new, the current data too limited, and the proc

It'll be back

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"Just a reminder in case you haven’t absorbed enough bad news over the past few weeks: epidemiologists expect COVID-19 to return in the fall even if we successfully stamp out the current outbreak by the end of spring. This means that after a few months of respite, we will be adopting social distancing measures again later this year." Not to put too fine a point on it, this will certainly be true by November. The Wisconsin GOP is already fighting against an exte nded deadline for mail-in ballots for next Tuesday's election and they adjourned without taking up the governors request to delay the election for public health reasons. In red states, if you want to vote, you'd better be wearing full body PPE. From the comment section: "In late October and into the first week of November there will be a spike in reported cases in every urban centre in the US, particularly in swing states. That, of course, will depress voter turnout where population is densest and

Unhinged?

Look, the Trump administration knew that it had a pandemic on its hands while the president, his administration and the Republican Party pooh-poohed COVID-19. They knew that this was a public health crisis, but only cared about managing the stock market for the November election. The governor of Georgia apparently claims that we only knew in the past 24 hrs that COVID-19 infected people could be asympomatic and still spread the virus. Don't insult my intelligence. He knew. They all knew. They just didn't care. They are accessories to murder. Shame.