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Don't believe in climate change? Well, insurance companies do. "We are well on the road to the inevitable political crisis that will be sparked by insurance. State Farm just stopped selling home insurance in California, due to wildfire and other climate-driven risks. Coastal states in the path of hurricanes have seen tons of insurers pull out altogether in recent years, and the ones left are handing down eye-watering premium increases to homeowners. Florida property insurance rates are rising 40% in a single year(!). In Louisiana, it was even worse—the state insurance of last resort bumped its rates 63% this year. Increases like this prompt predictable outrage. “Louisiana needs a healthy, competitive insurance market,” a typical editorial went, “but not at the cost of making it difficult-to-impossible for Louisianans to remain in their homes.” "And sure, you don’t have to be great at math to see that an annual insurance bill that compounds at something like 50% a year is,

I'm a scientist. My professional success has always relied on distinguishing between information that is useful as a guide to action vs BS. I've been very successful as a scientist because my crap detector has been well-tuned. The internet is a great resource if you have a good crap detector. If you don't, you'll fall for anything. "Conservatives don't get passively fed misinformation. They choose it, eyes wide open. They want to believe lies and conspiracy theories from people like Donald Trump, and after they "do their research" the comforting lies are all that's left. "But what is it that makes the endless lies so comforting?" https://jabberwocking.com/conservatives-actively-want-to-believe-only-lies/

With all the anxiety surrounding artificial intelligence, it's nice to read about a positive result. Not only did AI come up with a potentially effective new antibiotic, but: "What’s more, the compound identified by AI worked in a way that stymied only the problem pathogen. It didn’t seem to kill the many other species of beneficial bacteria that live in the gut or on the skin, making it a rare narrowly targeted agent." https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/25/health/antibiotic-artificial-intelligence-superbug/index.html

 How are those debt-ceiling negotiations going? Follow the money: "To put it in layman’s terms, if you need a place to put money over the course of this summer and you need it to be as safe as possible, investors are deciding Microsoft’s corporate bonds are more attractive than bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury. "It’s a clarifying perspective on the impact of GOP extremism and nihilism on the nation’s finances and global power." https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/shit-gets-real

The so-called Gephardt Rule (in honor of Missouri Representative Dick Gephardt who introduced its first version) provided that when the House agrees to a budget resolution, the Clerk shall prepare a joint resolution suspending the debt limit for the fiscal year covered by the budget resolution. It was repealed at the beginning of the 107th Congress, which had a Republican majority. The Gephardt Rule reflects the language of the 14th Amendment and would obviate the current GOP debt ceiling default threat hostage-taking, returning the budget debate to where it belongs—when the budget is being written. No do-overs between budgets, and no threats to the good faith and credit of the US.

I suspect that McCarthy and the GOP House think they have Biden boxed in for impeachment. If the nation goes into default, they'll impeach him. If he ignores the ceiling, they'll impeach him. There won't be 67 votes in the Senate for impeachment, but the trial will tie up the Senate business, blocking progress on judicial appointments. Not sure this will go over well in 2024 with the GOP plainly playing politics with the American economy.  

As I've posted here many times, the future of humanity in the second half of the 21st century looks bleak. Not just because of coastal flooding and desertification, but mostly because of the resource wars triggered by populations who need food and fresh water and are willing to fight and kill for it. It's too late already for conservation to make a difference. There's already too much CO2 in the atmosphere and it takes decades to dissipate. Moreover, melting of permafrost and methane clathrates, together with decreasing albedo in places formerly covered by reflective ice and snow, will amplify the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The only hopes to avoid disaster are geoengineering and carbon capture. Planet-scale geoengineering is risky, since we don't know enough about controlling any of the current methods. That leaves carbon capture. While carbon capture technology to remove CO2 at the source is maturing, removing atmospheric CO2 on a global scale i

"To replace Warren as state attorney of Hillsborough County (home to Tampa), DeSantis appointed Susan Lopez, a member of the conservative Federalist Society. One of Lopez’s first decisions was to rescind a policy implemented by Warren to not prosecute bicyclists and pedestrians for certain traffic charges. A 2015 Tampa Bay Times report exposed the Tampa police department’s relentless ticketing of Black cyclists for things like having inadequate lighting, or riding on handlebars, a dynamic local organizers have labeled “bicycling while Black.” The report catalyzed a Justice Department investigation which ultimately confirmed the disproportionate enforcement. "New research shows how such low-level interactions with the police can undercut our democracy by reducing the number of people who participate in elections. A study I co-authored with fellow researcher Kevin Morris, published in December in the American Political Science Review, finds that traffic stops by police stops in

Unlike abortion or gay marriage, Jesus *did* have something to say about how to treat strangers: "Truly, I say to you, as you did it to one of the least of these my brothers, you did it to me." Here's a short survey of biblical quotes that admonish believers to welcome strangers: https://www.openbible.info/topics/welcoming_strangers Here in 21st century America, though, the stranger is just another group to be exploited for publicity: "A week ago the New York Post went to town with a made-for-Fox News story of a group of veterans who had been booted out of hotels about an hour north of New York City to make way for migrants. As I said, it was a made-for-Fox News: Here are these disabled or impoverished American veterans getting kicked to the curb to make way for migrants with no permission to be in the country in the first place. Politicians jumped on the story. The Post ran it. It made the rounds of the wingnutosphere. Fox of course got on board. "But none of i

Do face masks work against COVID19? The problem with answering that question is that the words "mask" and "work" are undefined. "Masks" can refer to N95 masks, surgical masks, homemade cloth masks and gaiters. For protection against aerosolized virus, the N95 mask, if properly fitted, can provide some protection. The others are worthless for that purpose. From the beginning of the pandemic, I've said that face masks can "work" for three purposes: 1. If you are infected and coughing or sneezing, they can protect others from you; 2. they can prevent you from touching your nose and mouth, two possible routes of viral infection; 3. virtue signaling, reminding people to social distance. I see no reason to change that analysis. When the data change, I'll change my mind. https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/104512?xid=nl_mostcommented_2023-05-19&mh=eb71348a5ff6ae370cc6759bc5dc3300

"This could be the big enchilada, the case that fundamentally transforms America and American government from a modern, well-functioning nation into a third-world backwater where massive corporations and the billionaires they made rich, instead of We the People through elected representatives, set the rules. It’s corporate America’s wet dream. "It could fulfill Bannon’s and Trump’s promise to dismantle — or at least eviscerate — most of America’s regulatory agencies, leaving us all subject to the tender mercies of the country’s CEOs. "Now that the announcement has been made, expect this topic to go quiet until arguments begin this fall and a decision is announced, probably next spring. But you may want to hang onto this note for future reference, because it will roar back one day soon. "And knowing what’s coming down the road — and why, and from whom — is pretty important for those concerned with the future of our country and our children’s safety."   https://h

I saw a couple posts on FB yesterday blaming the bat attack at a Democratic Congressman's office on right wing extremism. I cautioned that it was too early to speculate on motive. "But initial indications suggest the assailant in the bat attack on Rep. Gerry Connolly’s (D-VA) office staff is a person who suffers from schizophrenia and who stopped taking his medication months ago and has been in a downward spiral since. Two staffers were hospitalized with non-life-threatening injuries after being struck with a metal bat. Connolly suggested mental illness was at the root of the attack rather than a specific grievance or political motivation." Good thing he wasn't a member of a well-regulated militia. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/more-on-nova-bat-attack

  Are oil companies gouging us on gas prices? Maybe. Gasoline is a very small part of our budget and has been for decades because we have owned compact cars with good mileage and lived close to work. Linda commuted to and from work by light rail for the last 15-20 years we lived in St. Louis. Not everyone can afford to live close to work and/or has access to public transportation. I get that. But when I see mostly SUVs on the road and some of them idling while parked (sometimes without anyone in the car!), I can see that most people don't really care about gas prices. You'll know when things are dire when the gas guzzlers disappear, traffic congestion reduces and demand for better public transportation, dense urban housing and walkable neighborhoods grows.

I've had a lifelong fascination with New York City in general and with Manhattan in particular. My dad grew up in Brooklyn, and my paternal grandparents lived on Long Island (Hempstead) when I was growing up. I went to the 1964 Worlds Fair in Flushing Meadows, and once ate at an automat in Manhattan. When my folks lived on the East Side for two years, I enjoyed visiting them between quarters in college. The Battery, Wall Street, SoHo, Central Park, all were just a short subway ride away from their apartment on East 65th Street. Manhattan Island is one huge boulder, but the upper surface is uneven and in some places, it is below the water level. Long ago, the legend began that the reason why skyscrapers are “missing” between Downtown and Midtown is because of geology. While superficially plausible, this myth has been debunked. My brother Mike, who is a retired mechanical engineer, sent me this explainer: https://buildingtheskyline.org/bedrock-and-midtown-i/#:~:text=The%20myth%20stat

Yes, I'd be OK if 18-21 year olds were allowed to own smooth bore flintlock muskets. That was what existed at the time of the framing. '“If the Court were to exclude 18-to-21-year-olds from the Second Amendment’s protection, it would impose limitations on the Second Amendment that do not exist from other constitutional guarantees,” Payne, a George H. W. Bush-appointee, wrote. "He then turned to the second part of the Supreme Court’s test, where the high court said that a regulation could only be upheld if analogous regulations existed at the time of the framing." OTOH, if they're part of a well-regulated militia, which is what the founding fathers specifically recognized, I'd also be OK. But I'm willing to be educated, if evidence is found that AR-15s existed at the time of the framing. https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/federal-handgun-ban-18-20-year-olds/index.html

How did CNN become reduced to broadcasting a Trump campaign ad/mini-rally? "The problem is that Licht and lots of people from his world approach the question with a category misunderstanding of what Trumpism is and how our hyper-polarized political and media landscape operates. It’s not as though Trump and his carnival of circus monkeys have a discrete list of complaints which can, at least for the most part, be addressed and then everybody is friends again. In the world of Trumpism there is the obedient press and the enemies. The whole point of the Trumpian Wurlitzer is to exact a price for non-compliance and get executives like Chris Licht to metaphorically or sometimes literally follow Trump around asking, “Sir, what can we do to prove we’re not liberal and make you happy?”" Shame. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/chris-lichts-excellent-world-of-cnn

Admitted billionaire thinks calling him a billionaire is unfair: This past March Senator Bernie Sanders hauled Starbucks founder and on-again-off-again DEO Howard Schultz before the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee under threat of subpoena to testify about the company’s labor violations. In the hearing, Schultz denied that Starbucks had broken the law in any way; refused to promise that he would expedite contract negotiations with workers at the first unionized cave who had been waiting over 460 days for a contract; and objected to the term “billionaire.” “Yes, I ha e billions of dollars,” he said. “I earned it. No one gave it to me. And I’ve shared it constantly with the people of Starbucks. And so anyone who keeps labeling this billionaire thing . . . It’s your moniker constantly. It’s unfair.” from “The Fight for Fair Wages” by Willa Glickman in The New York Review of Books 

Ft. Hood Is no more. The Army base in Texas will be renamed Fort Cavazos today, part of the broad initiative to remove the names of traitors from U.S. military installations.

"The Texas legislature could vote to expel state Rep. Bryan Slaton (R) as early as this week for allegedly plying a 19-year-old intern with alcohol and having sex with her. Slaton’s attorney has denied the allegations. It was just a few weeks ago that Slaton was leading the charge against drag shows as a “grooming event” that leads to the “the sexualization of our children.”" Color me unsurprised. https://apnews.com/article/texas-slaton-sexual-misconduct-expel-intern-2e80d8a4d0f9c9ce14b8c4b591cc567c

 “Our economy is in free fall due to unsustainable fiscal policies,” the [GOP] senators write in the letter. Actually, no, it's not. • as of this moment, the US economy is sound; • in the coming months, the US economy will tilt into recession because the Fed over-reacted to inflation by raising interest rates too quickly; • lifting the debt ceiling is about paying for expenses already incurred, it's not about fiscal policy. Republicans are posers. Their rhetoric is phony. Don't believe GOP lies, peeps. https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/06/politics/senate-republicans-debt-ceiling-raise-spending-cuts/index.html

"As Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas faces a growing number of revelations that have raised intense scrutiny over his ethical practices, legal experts say the high court has found itself in unprecedented territory, its credibility in the eyes of the public rapidly eroding. "The slew of disclosures about Thomas, the most recent of which came Thursday, demonstrate a need for institutional reform and the revision of ethics rules, experts said. “The revelations showcase how both wealthy and narrow interests cultivate their own relationships with justices with life tenure with the capacity to entrench or undermine policies for generations,” Robert Tsai, a professor at Boston University School of Law, said in an e-mail." As long as Thomas sits on the SCOTUS, it has no credibility. The Roberts court is a morass of corruption. All the judges are complicit if none of them denounce it. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/05/05/nation/stunning-revelations-about-clarence-thomas-un

 Anyone who is seriously concerned about the reputation and credibility of the Supreme Court of the United States would insist that Clarence Thomas resign immediately. (Gorsuch and Roberts are also ethically compromised) "The arrangement reveals that Leo, a longtime Federalist Society leader and friend of the Thomases, has functioned not only as an ideological ally of Clarence Thomas’s but also has worked to provide financial remuneration to his family. And it shows Leo arranging for the money to be drawn from a nonprofit that soon would have an interest before the court." https://www.eschatonblog.com/2023/05/john-roberts-sir-please-investigate.html

"Later, Kaplan reportedly asked Trump questions about other women who have accused him of sexual assault. That’s when the former president grew heated, telling Kaplan “you wouldn’t be a choice of mine, either, to be honest.” “I wouldn’t in any circumstances have any interest in you,” he said, bringing in the rejected dude at a bar defense." https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/where-things-stand-trump-makes-sure-jury-knows-hes-not-attracted-to-e-jean-carrolls-lawyer-either

Now it turns out that Harlan Crow paid for private school tuition for a Clarence Thomas grandnephew that Thomas raised "as a son." Of course, there will be no consequences for Thomas for this or the other blatant examples of bribery. From a comment thread over at jabberwocking.com: "Congress should criminalize - like "mandatory time served in jail" criminalize - the gift givers for giving gifts over a low threshold to government officials. But just like how we almost never go after employers for employing undocumented immigrants, we also won't go after the gift givers for giving bribes... er, I mean, gifts... either."

I competed in swimming (6th and 7th grade) and track and cross country (9th-12th grade). For about six months in college, I joined a karate dojo. All of these activities found me in locker rooms. Through all of that locker room time, I can't recall a single instance of hearing conversations about killing people or molesting women. " . . . In one message, an individual named Al messaged Alonso on December 24, 2020, asking: “When do we start stacking bodies on the White House Lawn?” “Jan 7th,” Alonso wrote back, according to evidence presented at the trial. Al responded: “The RINOs first, make the Democrats watch…” Alonso answered: “yes.” When asked about the message, Alonso testified it was all “‘locker room talk,’ if you will.” No, I won't. This isn't locker room talk. This is murder talk. Apparently, a jury of their peers agreed. https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/27/politics/proud-boys-locker-room-talk/index.html

Ronald Reagan popularized the myth of the "welfare queen," although he could never cite an actual, you know, person who was getting rich on welfare. In the latest DOA House bill, the GOP again plays the tough love work requirements game. So do SNAP work requirements incent jobs and/or income? "Because the rationale for work requirements is that they encourage adults who are able to work to earn more money and become more economically self-sufficient, we wanted to determine whether this policy boosts employment and earnings. We also looked into whether SNAP work requirements lead low-income adults to lose their benefits. "We found that the policy doesn’t make people more likely to find a job or make more money, but it does make Americans who could use help buying groceries less likely to get it." https://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/snap-work-requirements-dont-actually-get-more-people-working-they-just-make-it-harder-for-people-to-get-food

  Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on the UN: “We live in a world where the UN Security Council, the permanent members, all of them are the world’s biggest arms producers, they’re the world’s biggest arms sellers and they’re the world’s biggest war participants.” "He pointed to the invasion of Iraq by the US without a UN Security Council resolution as an example of lawlessness by members of the UNSC. MEMO quotes him as saying, “”When the United States invaded Iraq, there was no discussion in the Security Council. When France and England invaded Libya and when Russia invaded Ukraine, there was no discussion either.” "He added, “Why aren’t Brazil, Spain, Japan, Germany, India, Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa [permanent members]? Those who currently make decisions are the winners of the Second War, but the world has changed. We need to build a new international mechanism that does something different. I think it is time that we start to change things and it is time tha