Paul Ehrlich and me
Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich died on March 13 th . His 1968 book “The Population Bomb” was both influential and controversial in its time and has proven to be better fiction than science since then. I was required to read The Population Bomb in college. I recall being beguiled by its arguments and probably too by the stature of its author. Over the decades, I’ve come to appreciate the value of prophecies like those of Ehrlich; they are specific enough that, if we live long enough, we can see if they come to pass. If they do, the prophet is validated. If they don’t, he is discredited. In the case of Ehrlich, he was massively and conclusively discredited by events that followed. “. . . in 1970 he forecast that within the coming decade “100-200 million people per year will be starving to death” and “by 1985 enough millions will have died to reduce the earth’s population to some acceptable level, like 1.5 billion people”. Furthermore, by 1980 the life expectancy of the avera...