COVID-19 and the economy:suicide watch?
I’ve read claims that the number of suicides due to bankruptcy and job loss during the current economic recession will exceed the number of people who will die from COVID-19 itself. In other words, the shutdowns of businesses, schools and public places occasioned by the pandemic will be worse than the disease. Setting aside that we don’t actually know how many people will die from COVID-18 this year, how many people will permanently lose their jobs or go bankrupt this year, or how many people will respond to economic setback by doing themselves in, let’s do the ghoulish work of inspecting that claim.
The COVID-19 deaths this year to date in the US is 45,000. In the entire year of 2018, there were 48,000 suicides. So even if starting tomorrow, there wasn’t a single additional COVID-19 death, the number of suicides would have to be a 50% increase over background to equal the people who have died from the virus. More likely, the number of COVID-19 in the US will at least double from what it is now, meaning that recession-specific suicides will double the background rate of suicide.
Is this plausible? I found this difficult to assess, probably because every economic recession occurs in a different context: depth, duration, prior economic conditions, national and cultural norms and support systems.
I found a recent paper that reviewed 38 studies. 31 studies found a positive association between economic recession and increased suicide rates following the onset of recession. Two studies reported a clear overall negative association between economic recession and suicide (i.e., economic recession appearing to be a protective factor for suicide at the ecological level), two studies did not find an association and three studies were inconclusive. I didn’t read all the individual studies to discover how many appear relevant to present-day America, in the context of an expected short duration and in the context of a substantial federal stimulus the puts money in the pockets of the newly unemployed. I’ve posted the link below. But from what I’ve seen so far, it seems absurdly premature to assert that there will be a doubling of suicides as a direct result of the COVID-19 restrictions.
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