Trump’s Hail Mary pass

Trump bullied the EU into releasing 100 million barrels of oil from its reserves over the next four months. Will that bring down gas prices in the US significantly in time for midterms? The math says no. 

“Europe is putting roughly 820,000 barrels a day on the market.

“The world used about 104 million barrels a day of petroleum in 2025, though OPEC pegged it at 105 mn b/d. Global production reached 106 million barrels per day, which means there was a slight glut, and those reserves have helped the world get through the 2026 Iran War crisis.

 

“So, folks, 800,000 barrels a day is very small potatoes. It is roughly the production of minor players such as Argentina or Colombia. It isn’t going to make much difference.”

*snip*

“His having arranged for a release of a small amount of European reserves may help him talk up the US markets going into the midterms. It isn’t likely to make a big impact on gasoline and diesel prices, and the provision of a new 800k barrels a day to the markets could easily be offset by the loss of supply from elsewhere as a result of acts of war.”

https://www.juancole.com/2026/10/forced-release-reserves.html

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