The horserace

Historically, the party in power loses seats in the midterm. The smart money seems to be on that happening again in 2026. Since GOP margins in both houses are slim, so only a few seats can make the difference in control. As of today, Nate Silver has strong odds for Democrats taking the House, but the Senate is close to a toss-up. It’s still a couple months out, but Trump seems to be doing everything in his power to help the Democrats. 

The Democrats seem to be doing a lot of navel-gazing about the strength of the Democratic Socialists. But less remarked on it Trump fatigue on the right. Sarah Longwell at The Bulwark has been reporting on focus groups in, for instance, Georgia, where Trump voters are expressing enthusiasm for John Ossoff. Voters are looking for candidates who understand their concerns with grocery and gas prices and who will fight data centers.

Come November, I don’t expect a lot of Trump voters to vote blue, but if they just decide to stay home rather than vote for a GOP Trump mini-me, that may be enough.

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/sarah-had-to-double-check-these-are?utm_campaign=email-post&r=2133ns&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

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