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Here's an interesting commentary in Nature about climate change predictions. In a nutshell, the authors lament what they perceive as an over-reliance on worst-case scenarios, which they regard as highly unlikely. I don't share their confidence, but the time horizon under discussion is 2100, and I won't be around to evaluate their prophecies. Read the whole thing. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20200130&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20200130&sap-outbound-id=71F260FE673D5B0619D166CFD8E99C8A604CCF7B&mkt-key=005056B0331B1EE7838101D3C93B3000

As a PhD geneticist, I'm sufficiently conversant with the literature on evolution to recognize that creationism and its silly sibling "intelligent design" are unscientific and useless as a way to understand the world.  Remarkably, there are some folks who take it upon themselves to rebut creationist bafflegab. Some of them post on the Panda's Thumb blog. The math jargon is often above my pay grade, but this post made intuitive sense to me, at least: "A sticking point among a  lot of ID/Creationists seems to be whether information can be generated by a non-intelligent process. Computer chess provides a very dramatic example. Previously, chess-playing algorithms were designed by software developers in concert with strong human players. In 2017, however, the AlphaZero program was created by initializing a neural net with the rules of chess, and then having it play millions of games against itself, updating its neural net with each game. After 24 hours of suc...

We're used to thinking of conditions like obesity, heart disease, diabetes and cancer as being noncontageous. But increasing evidence from rodent models and from demographic studies in humans suggest a role for gut bacteria that can be shared between individuals. In the human studies, confounding factors like diet and lifestyle make the magnitude of the postulated effects unclear. I remember when peptic ulcers were treated with a bland diet and were blamed on type A personalities. Now we know that gut infection with Helicobactor pylori explains most cases of peptic ulcers (which may progress to stomach cancer). There is also good evidence that gum disease can result in heart disease, as mouth bacteria can enter the circulation. With regard to cardiovascular disease and the gut microbiome: " These modified postulates can be applied to CVD (heart attacks and strokes), the most prevalent NCD worldwide. There are strong correlations with the prevalence of particular gut micr...

The GOP trope for the impeachment is the Democrats are trying to undo a democratic election. Setting aside the fact that Trump was not democratically elected (he was appointed by the electoral college against the results of a democratic vote), the Democrats are asserting the checks and balances woven into the Constitution by the Founding Fathers. We are already well on our way to losing our Republic to a despotic executive. " When the President was found to have pressured President Zelensky of Ukraine into opening an investigation into Joe Biden, his presumed chief political rival, it was clear that the post-Nixon safeguards were no longer effective. And then the House of Representatives started investigating and issuing subpoenas, which were met with total and complete stonewalling. This showed the Founders’ vision of checks and balances was also under severe threat. In plain terms, Trump had started behaving like a King. More and more he appears incapable of separating personal ...

Ever since we could afford it, we've always flown to our vacation destinations rather than drive. This is because we take two-week vacations, and I didn't want to spend four days or more simply driving to and from (not to mention recovering from the long driving days). Recently, I've seen some claims that air travel is far more damaging to the climate than driving. There are other reasons to fly instead of drive (flying is *way* safer), but this certainly got my attention. Turns out, the math is far from clear, especially when you include the externalities of infrastructure to support air vs ground travel: Want guidance on whether to fly or drive? Differences in vehicles, number of passengers, and individual preferences mean there is no one-size-fits-all answer. YALECLIMATECONNECTIONS.ORG Evolving climate math of flying vs. driving » Yale Climate Connections Want guidance on whether to fly or drive? Differences in vehicles, number of pas...

I'm on my second e-reader. I had a Kindle for years, and read a few dozen books on it. But I couldn't read it in the dark, so now I have a lighted Samsung e-reader. The manufacture of e-readers has an environmental footprint. How does it stack up against dead tree readers? " A single e-reader’s total carbon footprint is approximately 168kg, and for a book, this figure is somewhere in the range of 7.5kg; the book’s length and type can lead this figure to vary. 1   Using an average of 7.5kg, we can conclude it would take reading about 22-23 books on an e-reader to reach a level in which the environmental impact is the same as if those books had been read in print." https://theecoguide.org/books-vs-ebooks-protect-environment-simple-decision Of course, the most environmentally friendly choice is a library book!

Health care is easy. Just show your M4A card when you see a doctor and you’re done. No fighting with insurance companies. Everyone is covered from the day they’re born. You don’t lose your coverage if you lose your job. Your coverage doesn’t change whenever your employer decides to save some money by switching insurance companies. Every doctor and hospital is paid via M4A, so you can see any doctor you want. You don’t have to worry about whether your doctor is part of your insurance company’s network. No surprise billing ever. All great goals, but how to pay for it? Numbers matter. My favorite blogger, Kevin Drum, breaks them down for you. It won't be easy, but it is possible. https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/01/medicare-for-all-is-not-a-pipe-dream/