Unintended consequences

According to press reports, the Trump Administration is considering military attacks on Iran. This act of war, like all wars, is likely to have unintended consequences. The myth is that such foreign attacks free domestic opposition to topple the regime (see, e.g., the Bay of Pigs). More often, they only serve to rally citizen support for the home government. 

Like nearly everything else the Trump regime undertakes, the US appropriation of Venezuelan oil also looks to have unintended consequences. As Iran’s government struggles under the weight of sanctions, high inflation, internal oppression, a weak economy and climate change, it looks like the diversion of Venezuelan oil could help bail out the ayatollahs, at least for the short term.

“Siyi Liu and Florence Tan at Reuters report that since Trump plans on diverting 2 million barrels a day of Venezuelan petroleum to the United States, the former buyer, China, will need to replace it. Most likely, it will replace it from Iran and Russia.

 

“They write, “China imported 389,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil in 2025, about 4% of its total seaborne crude imports, Kpler data showed.”

 

“Reuters doesn’t say so, but Trump’s move may save the Iranian government. It is currently facing ever-growing protests because of the further collapse of the Iranian currency, the rial. This substantial loss in the value of the rial is also owing to lower oil prices this fall. If Iran’s government can survive until April or May, the new China demand could well fill the coffers of its treasury.

 

“Iranian petroleum is under heavy US sanctions pressure, and has to more or less smuggle its own oil out to buyers. Among those buyers are small independent refineries in southern China around Shanghai, called Teapots.”

 

*snip*

“The Teapot refiners can buy from non-sanctioned sources such as Iraq, but they make more money if they buy sanctioned oil, since it is discounted by $10 to $15 a barrel. As I write, Brent Crude sells for $77.37 per barrel, so the Teapots can get Iranian crude for $67.37 a barrel or sometimes as low as $62.37, a substantial saving for them that adds significantly to their profits.”

So, Iran could end up profiting handsomely from Trump’s piracy. 

“This substantial gain for the Islamic Republic, however, will only help it weather the current political crisis if it manages to survive until April or May, when the Teapots plan to make their first purchases of Iranian petroleum.”

The word “if” is doing most of the work in that sentence. Mark your calendar.

https://www.juancole.com/2026/01/diversion-venezuelan-iranian.html

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