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Kotkin came to my attention through reading the first two volumes of his projected three-volume history of Stalin (the third volume has been long delayed). I just stumbled upon a two-part interview of Kotkin about his second volume. I was curious about what he looked like and how he spoke, so I watched them both. I found him to be articulate and incisive, summarizing vast swaths of detailed history into memorable oral commentary. He has a trait that I’ve tried to cultivate, which is the ability to speak continuously without saying “uh” or otherwise stammering just to fill space. Those interviews were courtesy of the Hoover Institution at Stanford, a notorious conservative bastion. At the time, he was still a professor at Princeton. Since then, he left Princeton to become a fellow at the Hoover Institution. There are several interviews of Kotkin online giving his takes on current events. Most interesting to me are his takes on Ukraine. Until now, my touchstone on this issue has been his...

GLP-1-based therapies for obesity have been transformational. The benefits are undeniable, and the risks for most people are negligible. These drugs belong in the class with anti-hypertensives and statins. Who could complain? Here's one doc who was an initial enthusiast, but who has cooled: “The  truth is, most patients don't stay on anti-obesity medications -- I see it in my practice every day. Research shows that three-quarters of patients stop GLP-1 medications  within 2 years , many within months. Reasons for discontinuation include cost, side effects, and supply shortages. But one of the most common reasons is that patients simply don't want to take a weight loss medication indefinitely. Many believe they can "beat the system," use them briefly, change their lifestyle, and stop taking them without regaining weight. “Unfortunately, they can't. Clinical trials of semaglutide and tirzepatide show that the average patient  regains two-thirds  of the weight lo...

When I was growing up, lots of adults smoked. My piano teacher smoked during my piano lessons. Cigarette commercials were on TV. Their jingles were so addictive, we in the trumpet section would play them before band practice. Airplanes used to have a smoking section and a no-smoking light that went on before take-off and landing. Eventually, America turned against tobacco, although it’s still widely consumed in much of the rest of the world. There’s no real debate anymore—tobacco isn’t food, it’s poison. Now, some folks are comparing processed food to tobacco. It’s true that the packaging and flavoring of both cigarettes and processed foods have been engineered to make them more attractive and more addicting. But let’s not get carried away, like RFK Jr: “The US health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has called ultraprocessed food “poison” and, in at least   one case , “genocide,”   . . . “ You know what’s poison? Arsenic is poison. Most American rice has significant levels o...

The first time I saw a cybertruck in person was when we were eating dinner at a restaurant in East Yellowstone. The restaurant staff were gathered in front of a window, gawking and holding up their cell phones. Someone had parked a cybertruck just outside. I’ve seen a couple here in East Providence RI since then. I don’t pay attention to car or truck design generally, but the cybertruck is  sui generis.  To me, it looks like a giant toy, something carved for the pine box derby. But I’m not part of the target market demographic, so my reaction doesn’t matter. How is that demographic responding? “The EV company sold fewer than 39,000 Cybertrucks in 2024, according to Cox Automotive data — far below the company’s eventual goal of 250,000 per year. As of October, Tesla had delivered just 17,317 units in 2025, a 42% drop compared to the same period in 2024. “Tesla didn’t return to a MarketWatch request for comment sent to its investor-relations team.   “There was a lot of buzz...

Looking at trends in White House décor, it’s easy to conclude the future of gold is bright. But investors see something different in the White House. “Gold futures traded in New York have soared almost 71% this year, on pace for their best annual gain in 46 years. The last time gold had such a strong year, Jimmy Carter was president, a crisis was unfolding in the Middle East, inflation was soaring and the United States was in the midst of an energy crisis. “Today, tariffs are distorting international trade, conflict is raging with Russia’s war on Ukraine, there have been flare-ups between Israel and Iran and the US is seizing oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela. In times of uncertainty, investors turn to safe havens like gold.” I would have added Chinese saber-rattling over Taiwan. Of course, this is why gold, silver and platinum are called fear metals. “Gold is considered a resilient investment, with investors expecting the yellow metal will retain its value in crisis, if inflation...

As a PhD molecular biologist, I’ve spent my entire career in tech, albeit academic tech. During that time, I’ve had the privilege to work with many colleagues on H-1B visas. I believe in meritocracy, and my experience is that most of these H-1B visa holders were eminently qualified. Were there more qualified Americans out there? Probably. But they didn’t apply for the job, and these folks did. You recruit from the pool you have, not the pool you wish you had. America needs bright, highly motivated people to compete in technology innovation. The last thing we need to do is discourage the best and brightest from around the world from coming here. We don’t need affirmative action for homegrown mediocrity.  “A federal judge said the Trump administration can move ahead with a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa applications, providing a setback for US technology companies that rely on hiring skilled foreign workers. “US District Judge Beryl Howell said in a ruling Tuesday that President Donal...

We moved here in Rhode Island after spending 40 years in St. Louis. We came to St. Louis in 1982 as postdocs. It was supposed to be a temporary gig and I figured we’d settle somewhere else. When I was being recruited to the Biochemistry Department at Saint Louis University, the chairman—who knew I was applying to universities all over the country—asked me how I felt about staying in St. Louis. I told him I was fine with it, that I’ve found things to like about each place I’d lived. We moved east to be near our daughter after Linda retired. We stumbled into this house in Rumford. It hadn’t gone on the market when it was offered to us, and we closed on it without having seen it in person and without a professional inspection. The first 18 months or so were a nightmare of home repairs. Now that those problems seemed to have abated, I can look around and appreciate what we have—a lovely neighborhood, great neighbors, and proximity to the amenities of city life in Providence while living te...

Ever since I started voting, I’ve voted in either red states or blue states. I’ve never missed an election. But why bother voting, since I’m outnumbered? Well, for one thing, millions of people have fought and died for the right to vote. I honor their memory by exercising my franchise. Beyond that, though, there’s the reality that sometimes what seems to be inevitable isn’t.   In 2025, Democratic voters voted in deep red states and red districts. What was the result? “Democrats, buoyed by Trump’s unpopularity and a fired-up base, flipped 21 percent of all the GOP-held seats that were on the ballot throughout 2025.   “According to Bolts’ analysis, Democrats gained 25 state Senate and House seats that were held by the GOP, out of the 118 that were resolved this year in regular or special elections.” Much of the time, I’m voting for the lesser of two evils. I’ve yet to encounter a metaphysically perfect candidate.  In a first-past-the-post voting system like ours, more than ...

I just finished reading “Two Paths to Prosperity: Culture and Institutions in Europe and China, 1000-2000”  by Avner Greif, Guido Tabellini, and Joel Mokyr.  The book, as suggested by the title, is a study of comparative economic history. My reading of economic history is limited to reading biographies of Marx and Keynes. My reading of Chinese history is limited to the 20 th  century. My reading of European history is more extensive, so it was of considerable interest to me to find a single book that compared the economic histories of Europe and China (with brief digressions on the Muslim middle east and India). As the authors observe, “An informed observer in AD 1000, watching European, Chinese and Islamic societies, would never have bet on Europe to emerge as the technologically and economically dominant civilization eight centuries later.” The main idea of this book is that China and Europe diverged in so many dimensions during the second millennium CE because of the v...

One of the many red herrings tossed out by the anti-vaxxers is that people who got the COVID jab still got COVID. That’s true. I’m one of them. But the promise of the COVID vaccine was never that it would keep you from getting infected. It was that the vaccine would likely keep you out of the ED or the morgue. And that’s proven to be the case. Similarly, the promise of sensible gun control was never that it would eliminate gun-related deaths*. It was that it would reduce the rate of homicide. So, the fact that Australia has (a) much stricter gun control than the US and (b) recently had a mass shooting isn’t an argument against gun control. Mass shootings are rare in Australia. They’re common in the US. "Incidents that are considered active shooting events have these criteria in common, according to researchers: “The event took place outside of a private residence, three or more victims (besides the perpetrator) were killed or wounded, at least one of the victims was unknown to the...

Every time Tesla stock declines, there’s another article saying the stock is collapsing. Like every stock, there are spikes in the long-term history, but if you plot a best-fit regression through Tesla stock prices since 2023, it’s been increasing. It is currently at an all-time high.* But some are questioning the relationship between current Tesla stock prices and value: “"Tesla is being viewed more and more on autonomy and energy," Jed Dorsheimer, group head of energy research at William Blair, told Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid. “Dorsheimer, who evaluates Tesla through the lens of energy and infrastructure, pointed to a startling disconnect in the company's valuation. "There's really a deemphasis on the auto business, which we value in some of the parts analysis that we've published," he said. "It really only [represents] about $30 to $40 per share in that business." So what accounts for Tesla’s gravity-defying performance? “Tesla's ra...

Mark Twain famously said, "A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes.” Among the many fleet-footed lies being told by the Trump Administration is that Lyme disease originated in a bioweapons facility. “During a November appearance on the "PBD Podcast," FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, MD, MPH, claimed that Lyme disease originated from "Lab 257 on Plum Island" near Lyme, Connecticut. He alleged that the disease stemmed from U.S. biodefense work involving a former Nazi physician who was spared the death penalty at the Nuremberg Trials and later assisted the military, and that infected ticks were explored as weapons.” There’s plenty of scientific evidence that Commissioner Makary’s conspiracy theory is malarky. “Decades of research show B. burgdorferi was circulating widely long before the animal laboratory at the center of the conspiracy theory ever opened. “In 1990, researchers reported finding B. burgdorferi in ticks ...

Data center consume immense amounts of energy, much of which is given off as heat (see: 2 nd   law of thermodynamics). In much of the world, the heat just goes into the environment. In Finland and Sweden, efforts are underway to use that waste heat for home heating. “• Microsoft and other companies are building large-scale data centers in Nordic countries, where cold climates, cheap renewable power, and district heating infrastructure allow waste heat to be captured and reused. “• Finland’s Espoo plans to heat up to 100,000 homes with waste heat from Microsoft’s new facility, helping to phase out fossil-fueled systems and cut emissions. “• Still, not all sites recover heat, and the enormous energy demands of data centers — which could double by 2030 — are sparking backlash, especially in regions where electricity is already stretched thin.” Data center investments are mainly what’s keeping the stock market above water. Data center construction jobs are keeping the US out of recessi...

I started taking Social Security in March, just after I turned 70. I was born in the mathematical middle of the baby boom. What does SS look like for boomers? “The average Social Security benefit for people at age 65 is $1,583 per month, according to the Social Security Administration. For men, the average is higher, at $1,756, and for women, it’s lower, at $1,426. “It’s important to note that people are not eligible for full Social Security retirement benefits at age 65. Though you can start receiving them as early as age 62, the benefits will be reduced by a small percentage each month before your full retirement age, which is 67 for people born in 1960 and later. As a result, the average monthly benefit for a retired worker is higher, at $1,976. At the exact age of 65, your benefits will be reduced to 86.7% of the full amount. ” Of course, SS was never meant to the only source of retirement income. Starting as a postdoc, my employer and I both contributed to a 403b plan. Many folks ...

If it hasn’t already been obvious for the past three decades, the stock market is dominated by gamblers, not investors. And gamblers don’t keep banker’s hours, peeps.   “Nasdaq, one of the world's largest exchanges that is home to tech companies Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), is planning to submit paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday to roll out round-the-clock trading of stocks, as it looks to capitalize on a global demand for U.S. ​equities.” Well, not really round-the-clock. 23 hours a day, five days a week. But if equities are gonna compete with cryptocurrency, they’ll have to keep the casino open longer. Fool, money, parted, etc. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-nasdaq-seeks-extend-trading-211843764.html

For those who, like me, have eschewed cryptocurrency, you might have missed the recent Bitcoin crash.   “Digital asset treasuries were flying high this year until bitcoin's sudden October crash. Now many of those companies are sitting on unrealized losses.” *snip* “Over 180 public companies currently hold crypto on their balance sheets, with roughly 100 of that total having followed some version a the playbook that Strategy (MSTR) co-founder Michael Saylor pioneered in 2020 by issuing debt and equity to rapidly accumulate bitcoin.” So, who are these “investment” geniuses? “KindlyMD (NAKA) has tumbled 39%. Eric Trump's American Bitcoin (ABTC) is down 60%. Anthony Pompliano's ProCap Financial (BRR) has fallen 65%. “Meanwhile, shares in treasury companies holding ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, are down. Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), chaired by Fundstrat's Tom Lee, is down more than 33% since October's crypto sell-off as the token has fallen more tha...

In November 2025, Vinay Prasad,   director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research at the FDA claimed, "career staff have found that at least 10 children have died after and because of receiving COVID-19 vaccination." This statement was false. What’s the truth of the matter? “ The final Dec. 5 memo, according to FDA employees with knowledge of the situation, states that under an established World Health Organization (WHO) framework,  zero  deaths were deemed "certain" to have been caused by COVID-19 vaccines,  two  were judged to be "probable/likely," while  five  were "possible."   “Probable/likely cases are those determined to have been "unlikely" due to another cause. But for the "possible" category, an alternative explanation was determined to have been equally likely, meaning that the chance that vaccines were responsible for those deaths was 50-50 at most.” For reference, the FDA report covers over 138 millio...

I grew up in Tennessee, but since graduating from UT-Knoxpatch, I’ve only returned a few times for special occasions. So, help me make sense of this, Tennessee peeps. A recent poll says that  61% rate the state’s economy as “very” or “fairly good,” and 53% feel things in Tennessee are going in the “right direction.” Which direction is the right direction? “ According to the poll, there’s also concern about the ability to pay for medical emergencies, cover regular bills and save for retirement or education, has increased by double digits. “ “Even the ability to pay for typical monthly bills for housing, food and transportation are ‘very’ or ‘moderately’ concerning for 51 percent of Tennesseans,” the poll states.   “Those fears escalate when it comes to saving for the future. Seventy percent of respondents are ‘very’ or ‘moderately’ worried about having enough savings for things like retirement or education.” https://www.wsmv.com/2025/12/11/economic-anxiety-surging-tennessee-van...

My parents were both college grads by the time I was born. They believed strongly in the importance of a college education. In the event, they had five kids, all of whom graduated four-year colleges within four years. By the time I finished college, though, only about 25% of American adults had graduated a 4-year college or university. That number is now about 38%. College enrollment among 18-24-year-olds has been declining for over a decade. My reaction is ambivalent at best. College isn’t for everyone, and many people who graduate end up taking jobs that don’t require a college degree. On the other hand, I’d like my fellow voters to be educated. On the third hand, a bachelor’s degree doesn’t guarantee good judgement. What’s going on?   “ Most of the decline is due to fewer young men pursuing college. About 1 million fewer young men are in college but only 0.2 million fewer young women. As a result, men make up 44% of young college students today, down from 47% in 2011, according ...

The Trump Administration’s war on underrepresented minorities is targeting his base—young white men.  “For years universities and colleges have been trying to keep the number of men and women on campuses evened out at a time when growing numbers of men have been choosing not to go to college. Some schools have tried to attract more men by   adding football   and other sports,   promoting forestry and hunting programs   and launching entrepreneurship competitions.  “Nationwide, the number of women on campuses has   surpassed the number of men   for more than four decades, with nearly   40 percent more women than men  enrolled in higher education, federal data show. “Efforts to admit applicants at higher rates based on gender are legal under a loophole in federal anti-discrimination law, one that’s used to keep the genders balanced on campuses. “But the Trump administration has consistently included gender among the characteristics it says...

The Trump Administration is holding a gun to the heads of rural citizens in blue states. To get taxpayer dollars to care for   chronic illnesses and addiction and mitigate hours-long drives for basic services, states will need to change their laws: “ When the Trump administration begins distributing the money at the end of the year, it will divide half of the $50 billion among all states that apply evenly, regardless of population — giving smaller states vastly more money per capita. It will also dole out a quarter of the funds based on factors like the size of a state’s rural population, how much free health care its providers give to people who can’t afford to pay, and how large its land area is. “The rest is up to the discretion of the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services based on how well states’ plans align with the Trump administration’s vision for the program. “And $3.75 billion of that, or 7.5 percent of the total, hinges on whether states pass a series of pol...

My university offers tenured faculty over the age of 60 two retirement options: (1) a buyout, where the faculty gets a full year’s worth of salary and benefits in exchange for immediate retirement and (2) phased retirement, where the faculty can choose reduced salary (70%, 50% or 30%) with reduced responsibilities for up to five years. I chose phased retirement because (a) I wasn’t ready to quit cold-turkey and (b) I wanted to max out my Social Security. I’m glad I did. There’s a third option that I didn’t take, but many Americans are taking: working for reduced salaries while taking Social Security benefits at the same time. “Claiming Social Security while still working isn’t an outlier these days. “It’s pretty common, according to a recent report by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, which found that 2 in 5 people combine work and benefits for at least some period of time.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/working-while-collecting-social-security-the-slow-fade-to-ret...

Like Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump, I never had to serve in combat. But I’ve read enough history to understand why laws governing conduct of war have emerged. Secretary Hegseth thinks these laws are a sign of weakness and shouldn’t apply to the US military. I’m calling bullshit. But don’t take it from me, take it from someone with actual, you know, combat experience: “ The law of armed conflict isn’t humanitarian sentimentality imposed by lawyers who’ve never seen combat. It’s practical doctrine forged over centuries of warfare, codified in the Geneva Conventions by nations that understood a fundamental truth: How they fight determines whether peace is possible afterward, and whether their own troops come home alive.     “The International Committee of the Red Cross   states it plainly : The law of armed conflict exists “to provide protection for the victims of conflict and to lay down rules for the conduct of military operations.” But here’s what they also emphasize: “Th...

During my career, I served on NIH study sections and NSF grant review panels. What I personally witnessed was discussions over the scientific merits of various applications. There was no discussion of whether a proposal should be prioritized because the investigator worked at an elite institution on the east of west coast. Could the applicant institution have been an unspoken factor? Possibly, although I don’t know how to measure that. I should probably point out here that many reviewers at non-elite universities trained at elite universities. Does that constitute bias? The outcome of federal grant reviews has historically favored investigators from elite universities. This is unsurprising, since (a) these institutions are magnets for research talent and (b) these institution have the resources for research infrastructure that lesser institutions don’t. The Trump Administration has slashed NIH funding for “DEI” projects that investigate the causes and consequences of discrimination aga...

One of embarrassments of our time is the medicalization of food. No, kale isn’t a superfood. No, Froot Loops are not poison. Food isn’t medicine. As for the risks of ultra-processed foods, any pharmacologist or toxicologist will tell you that the dose makes the poison. Ultra-processed foods don’t cause obesity. Obesity is caused by consuming more calories than you burn. Your body can’t tell what those calories came from, but if you take in too many calories, the excess is stored as fat. In reality, some ultra-processed foods are supplemented with vitamins and minerals. Here’s what’s in Cheerios, an ultra-processed breakfast cereal: Whole Grain Oats, Corn Starch, Sugar, Salt, Tripotassium Phosphate. Vitamin E (mixed tocopherols) Added to Preserve Freshness. Vitamins and Minerals: Calcium Carbonate, Iron and Zinc (mineral nutrients), Vitamin C (sodium ascorbate), A B Vitamin (niacinamide), Vitamin B6 (pyridoxine hydrochloride), Vitamin A (palmitate), Vitamin B1 (thiamin mononitrate), A B...

I grew up in the south. When I moved from Tennessee, it was to North Carolina, still in the south. From there, I moved to St. Louis, which is a little further north, but still very hot in the summer.  Three and a half years ago, I moved to New England. Expecting classic New England weather, one of the first purchases was a snow-blower. We’ve used it exactly twice. “ New England is among the fastest warming regions in the entire world, not just in the United States, having experienced more than 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.5 degrees Celsius) warming between 1900 and 2024.   “ Nowhere is that warming showing up more than during New England winters, when temperatures are rising twice as fast as in other seasons, bringing significant losses in snow cover,   according to the study   published Thursday in the journal Climate. ” As I write this, the outside temperature is 15°F, with a wind chill of 5°F, but there’s no snow. The ten-day forecast shows brief periods of snow, fol...

"Let the little children come to me, and do not hinder them, for to such belongs the kingdom of God"  ~Mark 10:14 The Trump Administration is hastening the eternal rest of the little children: “ President Trump’s unlawful dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development has contributed to the   first rise in global child mortality   since at least 1990, according to a new report from the Gates Foundation. Nearly a quarter of a million more children under 5 are projected to die worldwide in 2025 than in 2024.” ~TPM update Suffer the little children indeed.  

  Biblical literalists have struggled since the time of Galileo to reconcile their reading of the Bible with the facts and evidence that have emerged since then. Somehow, it is inconceivable that a novel written by Iron Age pastoralists in the Levant could have been allegorical. As I’ve told medical students, science tells us *how* the world was made, religion tells us *why* the world was made. The contortions creationists must engage in order to justify clinging to their plagiarized creation myth would just be a source of amusement if it weren’t for their efforts to supplant science with their facially implausible fiction. I’ve encountered this in the form of anti-evolution nonsense so silly it would make a dog laugh. But the latest post over at Panda’s Thumb has an account of how the evidence for interstellar comets (1) thoroughly eviscerates 6000-year-old earth creationism and (2) has been met with silence by young earth creationists. “The physics of 3I/ATLAS are simple and unco...

Trump is borrowing from the Zohran “Socialist” Mamdani playbook to brand himself as the affordability president. “ “I AM THE AFFORDABILITY PRESIDENT,” Trump wrote in the Saturday morning [Pravda Social] post.    “Trump based that proclamation on his claim that “DRUG PRICES ARE FALLING AT LEVELS NEVER SEEN BEFORE, 500%, 600%, 700%, and more.” He also suggested that, “if this story is properly told, we should win the Midterm Elections in RECORD NUMBERS.   “Experts   of all stripes   have noted that Trump’s math doesn’t add up. If those numbers were true, it would mean that pharmaceutical companies were literally paying the government to distribute their drugs rather than charging anything for them. Furthermore, the policy Trump is touting that has led to some lower prices is one that was   enacted by President Joe Biden .” Of course, affordability to Trump means stiffing your lenders and contractors, something the rest of us can’t do. We have to actually, you...

Looks like RFK Jr has pivoted from lying about the long-discredited Thimerosal-autism connection to blaming aluminum-containing adjuvants for autism. Since there’s no evidence for this, RFK Jr’s position is that studies have not definitively ruled out a link between vaccines and autism. Well, science doesn’t deal in proof, it deals in the weight of evidence. The weight of evidence is that aluminum adjuvants in vaccines are safe. What does Robert “follow the science” Kennedy have to say about that? “In August, Kennedy denounced a large Danish study finding no link between aluminum in vaccines and childhood disease, calling it a "deceitful propaganda stunt" and demanding its retraction. The Annals of Internal Medicine rejected the claim and refused to retract the study.” That’s not evidence, that’s gaslighting. The only thing that answers evidence is better evidence. RFK Jr has none. The actual, you know, evidence is that the minute amounts of aluminum in vaccines is dwarfed by...