Juan Cole on Iran

 Juan Cole is Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan. He is fluent in Arabic, Persian and Urdu, and Turkish as well as several European languages. Since he allows reposts of his blog content on social media, I’m going to exceed the fair use limit in quoting him here. To read the rest, the link is at the bottom.

“Top Things You Still Think You Know About Iran that are Not True

 

“Belief: Iran is aggressive and has threatened to attack Israel, its neighbors or the US

 

“Reality: Iran has not launched an aggressive war in modern history (unlike the US or Israel), and its leaders have a doctrine of “no first strike.” This is true of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as of Revolutionary Guards commanders.

 

“Belief: Iran is a militarized society bristling with dangerous weapons and a growing threat to world peace.

 

“Reality: Iran’s military budget in recent years has expanded from $10 billion a year around $15 billion annually, making it 25th in the world for such expenditures and putting it in the same range as Singapore and Uruguay. Algeria and Turkiye spend more, and Israel spends twice as much.

“Belief: Iran has threatened to attack Israel militarily and to “wipe it off the map.”

 

“Reality: Iran’s leaders have often warned Israel that an attack would be met with a strong response. No Iranian leader in the executive had threatened a first-strike, aggressive act of war on Israel, since this would contradict the doctrine of ‘no first strike’ to which the country has adhered. 

 

“Belief: But didn’t President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (in office 2005-2013) threaten to ‘wipe Israel off the map?’

 

“Reality: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did quote Ayatollah Khomeini (d. 1988) to the effect that “this Occupation regime over Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time” (in rezhim-e eshghalgar-i Qods bayad as safheh-e ruzgar mahv shavad). This was not a pledge to roll tanks and invade or to launch missiles, however. It is the expression of a hope that the regime will collapse, just as the Soviet Union did. It is not a threat to kill anyone at all.

 

“Belief: But aren’t Iranians Holocaust deniers?

 

“Actuality: Some are, some aren’t. Former president Mohammad Khatami has castigated Ahmadinejad for questioning the full extent of the Holocaust, which he called “the crime of Nazism.” Many educated Iranians in the regime are perfectly aware of the horrors of the Holocaust. 

 

“Belief: Iran is like North Korea in having an active nuclear weapons program, and is the same sort of threat to the world.

 

“Actuality: Iran has long had a nuclear enrichment site at Natanz near Isfahan where it said it was producing fuel for its Bushehr nuclear energy plant and for future civilian nuclear reactors to generate electricity. All Iranian leaders denied that this site was for weapons production, and the International Atomic Energy Agency repeatedly inspected it over the decades and found no weapons program. Iran is not being completely transparent, generating some doubts, but all the evidence the IAEA and the CIA can gather points to there not being a weapons program. 

 

“Belief: Isn’t the Iranian regime irrational and crazed, so that a doctrine of mutually assured destruction just would not work with them?

 

“Actuality: Iranian politicians are rational actors. If they were madmen, why haven’t they invaded any of their neighbors? Saddam Hussein of Iraq invaded both Iran and Kuwait. Israel has invaded its neighbors more than once, most recently Syria. In contrast, Iran has not started any wars. 

 

https://www.juancole.com/2025/06/things-still-think.html