Can Israel win without boots on the ground?

In its latest attack on Iran, Israel has resorted to bombing and assassination to convince Iran to capitulate on its nuclear program*. What’s the track record of success for bombing and assassination campaigns?

Bombing

“Unless an enemy army takes Tehran, as the US military took Baghdad in 2003, this four-branch government cannot be gotten rid of by a foreign power. Bombing the capital won’t do the trick.”

 

*snip*

 

“The US bombed Vietnam for a decade and still lost the war, despite having 500,000 troops on the ground. The US bombed Afghanistan for twenty years and still lost the war despite at some points having 100,000 troops on the ground. Air power alone would have produced even less impressive results.

 

“So even if President Donald J. Trump takes the unwise step of joining Israel in its bombing campaign, it is difficult to see what military victories that might bring.

 

“Iran is a Shiite country with a strong devotion to martyrs, and martyring Shiites will not cause them to lose heart.

 

“The Israeli bombing campaign has probably set back Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment program a few weeks, but since the country has a great deal of engineering and science expertise and has uranium mines, these bombing campaigns cannot remove Iran’s nuclear know-how.”


Assassination

“The Israeli security establishment firmly believes that assassinating leaders can cause organizations to collapse. It is a false belief, and the falsity has been demonstrated time and again, most notably by the resilience of Hamas.

 

“As Matt Fitzpatrick points out, if Iranian generals are killed, colonels will be promoted. Killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the clerical Leader of Iran, would simply lead the 88-member Assembly of Experts (Majles-e Khobregan-e Rahbari) — the Iranian equivalent of the Vatican’s College of Cardinals — to elect a new August Leader (Rahbar-e Mo`azzam). Iran’s government, with four branches, is particularly complex. The Assembly of Experts, the Expediency Council, the judiciary and the office of the August Leader are all staffed by seminary-trained clerics of standing. In addition, there is a popularly elected president and parliament.”

*snip*

“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may hope that by killing high-ranking generals and perhaps even some civilian leaders, he can weaken the government enough to allow opposition forces to make a revolution. It is unlikely, however, that the political opposition could or would essentially collaborate with the Israeli attack. Most Iranians are above all nationalists. There are some quislings so eager for power that they would ally with Israel, such as the MEK (People’s Jihadis) cult that has recruited so many US politicians in Washington, D.C., but they are tiny and widely despised.”

 

*While Iran has been enriching uranium for nuclear power plants, there’s no evidence it has enriched to the much higher purity required for a fission weapon. While it certainly could do so, there’s zero evidence that it is doing so. If Iran had wanted a bomb, it would already have one.

https://www.juancole.com/2025/06/campaigns-israel-largely.html

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