My name is Joel and I’m a pollaholic


I check 538 and Princeton Election Consortium many times a day. 538 has held to a 2+ percent advantage for Harris (which is within the margin of error) for weeks, while PEC took a deep dive for Trump and only recovered to a virtual tie in the past 36 hours.

 

Over at Talking Points Memo, Josh Marshall highlights the evidence that right-wing pollsters have been flooding the zone. While aggregators like 538 discount “house effects,” there may be a percent or two favoring Trump that can be explained by right-wing payola. Here’s the tl;dr:

“Yes, zone flooding is real. Yes, it played a big roll in the false 2022 red wave. Yes, they’re doing it again now. But it’s probably have less impact on the quality polling averages than you might think.”

Read the rest here:

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/are-right-wing-pollsters-flooding-the-zone

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