The 2024 election and the geopolitics of oil

The 2024 presidential election will be between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Of that we can be certain. We can also be certain that the vote will be very close, and there are geopolitical players who will put their thumbs on the scale.

“The Saudi Kingdom’s de facto rule Mohammad bin Salman’s coziness with the Trump family is notorious. Meanwhile, if Trump defeats Biden next year that would allow Vladimir Putin to escape the most monumental mistake of his two plus decades in power. We don’t even have to assume a new Trump administration would immediately switch sides or cut off support to Ukraine. Opposition from Congress would probably (maybe?) prevent anything quite so sudden and drastic. But both Ukraine and Russia would know that the clock was ticking on US support for Ukraine. That would greatly increase the odds of some stalemated, frozen conflict like the ones we see around the former Soviet periphery and indeed saw in Ukraine itself from 2014 to 2022.”

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