The popular press treats “the Taliban” like a state entity. It isn’t. In its present form, the Taliban that took control of Afghanistan is, at best, a patchwork of fluid alliances with uncertain loyalties. The fall of the US puppet government in Kabul was made possible by manpower and resources drawn from various ethnicities and nationalities. Currently, what passes for leadership is trying to paper over this fractious alliance by branding itself the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” and issuing unenforceable edicts. Whether any recognizable central government will emerge from the current chaos seems doubtful, and neighboring countries, fearing Islamist violence, will present further challenges as factions within Afghanistan seek patrons by extortion.
Don’t be fooled by the simpleminded and ahistorical commentaries that analogize the Taliban to Nazi Germany and Biden to Chamberlain. The Taliban don’t have a navy or air force and their blitzkrieg takeover was possible only because of the feeble Potemkin Kabul government. The alliance between the earlier Taliban and al Qaida, which allowed 9/11 and resulted in the 20-year US military occupation, was always fraught and depended mostly on the wealth of Usama bin Laden. While al Qaida remnants (as well as ISIL/Daesh) will certainly try to exploit the current turmoil, it is far from clear that they will gain a significant foothold here outside of the Arab Middle East. Despite the western press, all Muslims are not alike.
Here’s a good analysis of the state of play in Afghanistan and the enormous barriers faced by anyone who attempts to manage this real estate as a coherent nation.
https://www.juancole.com/2021/08/taliban-extremist-operate.html?fbclid=IwAR1rjt1X3tbSt1r7oTyJYQ4duxjVs0tud0S2Z8y9Vtam4c0_3CJuqIdiYK8
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