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China will benefit from the Trump tariffs

Trump asserted that “trad wars are easy to win.” So far, it doesn’t look like Americans are winning. But in the longer term, Trump may be right: his trade war may be easy for China to win: “Liberation Day isolates America from the rest of the world by incentivizing all other countries to trade with each other instead of America,” said Frank Tsai, an adjunct professor at the Emlyon Business School’s Shanghai campus. “China now has a golden opportunity to beat America at its own game.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-gives-china-xi-chance-122001974.html  

The real reason for the Trump tariffs

The economic hardship is a feature, not a bug. From Sen. Chris Murphey (D-CT): "Those trying to understand the tariffs as economic policy are dangerously naive. No, the tariffs are a tool to collapse our democracy. A means to compel loyalty from every business that will need to petition Trump for relief. This week you will read many confused economists and political pundits who won’t understand how the tariffs make economic sense.   That’s because they don’t. They aren’t designed as economic policy. The tariffs are simply a new, super dangerous political tool.   You see, our founders created a President with limited and checked powers. They specifically put the power of spending and taxation in the hands of the legislature.   Why? Because they watched how kings and despots used spending and taxes to control their subjects.   British kings used taxation to reward loyalty and punish dissent.   Our own revolution was spurred by the King’s use of heavy taxation of t...

Trump is killing the American vaccine industry

“The United States led the world in developing the technology that beat the COVID-19 pandemic. Action from lawmakers may leave that legacy—and a $70 billion market—behind.”   Abandoning mRNA vaccines is bad science, bad medicine, bad public health and bad business. This is just stupid. Which defines the Trump administration.   https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2025/03/28/trump-administrations-attack-on-mrna-vaccines-threatens-american-biotech-dominance/?utm_source=ForbesMainFacebook&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainFB&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwY2xjawJaT9NleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHW02jRQp_HTmvXn6QCMdtBuk53a2709h8DFSpiyGAZE-sTcHRhWZ9qo_IQ_aem_nGhaLp4dSVlJD8O-JQpdpg

Weekend warriors FTW

For most of the 20 years before we left Missouri, I engaged in endurance training exercise. But the vast majority of that exercise was on weekends and occasional holidays, since it was bike riding and (a) I wanted to avoid weekday traffic and (b) I was employed full-time. All of which made me a “weekend warrior” as far as intensive exercise is concerned. At the time, I was aware of claims that being a weekend warrior didn’t provide the same benefits as exercise spread evenly over the week. Turns out, the data say they’re equivalent: “ During an 8.1 ‐ year median follow ‐ up, 3965 adults died from all causes, including 667 from cardiovascular disease and 1780 from cancer. Both the active weekend warrior group (all ‐ cause death: hazard ratio [HR], 0.68 [95% CI, 0.64–0.74]; cardiovascular disease death: HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.58–0.83]; cancer death: HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.71–0.89]) and the active regular group (all ‐ cause death: HR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.68–0.81]; cardiovascular disease death: HR, ...

My Social Security experience

With all the political chaos surrounding Social Security in the Trump Administration, I thought it might be useful to report on my experience. I submitted an online for Social Security payments on 11 December 2024, with benefits requested to start in March 2025. You can’t request a day, only a month. I was notified on my SS page that the application had been received on 11 December and that it was under review in an office in Pennsylvania. The notification also said that the review process typically takes 30 days and that I'd be notified if there were any problems. On January 10 (30 days), my SS page still said the application was under review. Same on 9 February (60 days). On 28 March, I was notified that my application was approved. During this time, I learned a couple of useful things: (1) like your pay check, SS checks drop at the end of the month, (2) it normally takes 3-5 months from the date of application for the first check to arrive and (3) if your check is delayed past t...

How to make money while losing money

“Newsmax raised $75 million in its IPO Friday, with shares priced at $10. Newsmax’s rapid ascent in its first two days of trading pushed the company’s market cap to $16.7 billion. Shares traded around $190 early Tuesday.” Sounds great, right? But scroll down a bit:   “The company is facing an ongoing lawsuit from Dominion Voting Systems seeking $1.6 billion in damages   related to false claims it made in its coverage of the 2020 election, which Newsmax cited among risk factors to its business in its latest 10-K filing to the SEC.    “Newsmax settled another lawsuit with another election tech company Smartmatic in 2024 for similar claims and has paid $20 million of the $40 million settlement thus far, according to the filing . . . While Newsmax’s revenue soared roughly 26% to roughly $171 million in 2024, the company lost $72 million that year. The company also said in its filing that it has identified “material weaknesses” in its financial reporting controls such tha...

The federal government and the future of US medical training

Residency is a mandatory step to achieving medical licensure in the US. Most residency programs are managed by hospitals, although my medical school is one of the ca. 10% that manages its own residency programs. The federal government, primarily through Medicare and Medicaid, is the largest source of funding for Graduate Medical Education (GME), which includes residency programs. Residency training is a significant bottleneck in the pathway for new physicians. If DOGE elected to cut off federal funding for GME, it would strangle medicine in the US. Unless (a) residency training was eliminated as a licensure requirement and/or (b) GME training were handed off to private equity firms that are already buying up hospitals across the country. I don’t see how either of these options improves healthcare for Americans.