Posts

Review of “Two paths to prosperity” I just finished reading “Two Paths to Prosperity: Culture and Institutions in Europe and China, 1000-2000”  by Avner Greif, Guido Tabellini, and Joel Mokyr.  The book, as suggested by the title, is a study of comparative economic history. My reading of economic history is limited to reading biographies of Marx and Keynes. My reading of Chinese history is limited to the 20 th  century. My reading of European history is more extensive, so it was of considerable interest to me to find a single book that compared the economic histories of Europe and China (with brief digressions on the Muslim middle east and India). As the authors observe, “An informed observer in AD 1000, watching European, Chinese and Islamic societies, would never have bet on Europe to emerge as the technologically and economically dominant civilization eight centuries later.” The main idea of this book is that China and Europe diverged in so many dimensions during the s...

It’s the guns

One of the many red herrings tossed out by the anti-vaxxers is that people who got the COVID jab still got COVID. That’s true. I’m one of them. But the promise of the COVID vaccine was never that it would keep you from getting infected. It was that the vaccine would likely keep you out of the ED or the morgue. And that’s proven to be the case. Similarly, the promise of sensible gun control was never that it would eliminate gun-related deaths*. It was that it would reduce the rate of homicide. So, the fact that Australia has (a) much stricter gun control than the US and (b) recently had a mass shooting isn’t an argument against gun control. Mass shootings are rare in Australia. They’re common in the US. "Incidents that are considered active shooting events have these criteria in common, according to researchers: “The event took place outside of a private residence, three or more victims (besides the perpetrator) were killed or wounded, at least one of the victims was unknown to the...

Tesla stock is defying gravity

Every time Tesla stock declines, there’s another article saying the stock is collapsing. Like every stock, there are spikes in the long-term history, but if you plot a best-fit regression through Tesla stock prices since 2023, it’s been increasing. It is currently at an all-time high.* But some are questioning the relationship between current Tesla stock prices and value: “"Tesla is being viewed more and more on autonomy and energy," Jed Dorsheimer, group head of energy research at William Blair, told Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid. “Dorsheimer, who evaluates Tesla through the lens of energy and infrastructure, pointed to a startling disconnect in the company's valuation. "There's really a deemphasis on the auto business, which we value in some of the parts analysis that we've published," he said. "It really only [represents] about $30 to $40 per share in that business." So what accounts for Tesla’s gravity-defying performance? “Tesla's ra...

Makary’s malarky

Mark Twain famously said, "A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes.” Among the many fleet-footed lies being told by the Trump Administration is that Lyme disease originated in a bioweapons facility. “During a November appearance on the "PBD Podcast," FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, MD, MPH, claimed that Lyme disease originated from "Lab 257 on Plum Island" near Lyme, Connecticut. He alleged that the disease stemmed from U.S. biodefense work involving a former Nazi physician who was spared the death penalty at the Nuremberg Trials and later assisted the military, and that infected ticks were explored as weapons.” There’s plenty of scientific evidence that Commissioner Makary’s conspiracy theory is malarky. “Decades of research show B. burgdorferi was circulating widely long before the animal laboratory at the center of the conspiracy theory ever opened. “In 1990, researchers reported finding B. burgdorferi in ticks ...

Nordic data centers heat homes

Data center consume immense amounts of energy, much of which is given off as heat (see: 2 nd   law of thermodynamics). In much of the world, the heat just goes into the environment. In Finland and Sweden, efforts are underway to use that waste heat for home heating. “• Microsoft and other companies are building large-scale data centers in Nordic countries, where cold climates, cheap renewable power, and district heating infrastructure allow waste heat to be captured and reused. “• Finland’s Espoo plans to heat up to 100,000 homes with waste heat from Microsoft’s new facility, helping to phase out fossil-fueled systems and cut emissions. “• Still, not all sites recover heat, and the enormous energy demands of data centers — which could double by 2030 — are sparking backlash, especially in regions where electricity is already stretched thin.” Data center investments are mainly what’s keeping the stock market above water. Data center construction jobs are keeping the US out of recessi...

The retirement picture in 2025

I started taking Social Security in March, just after I turned 70. I was born in the mathematical middle of the baby boom. What does SS look like for boomers? “The average Social Security benefit for people at age 65 is $1,583 per month, according to the Social Security Administration. For men, the average is higher, at $1,756, and for women, it’s lower, at $1,426. “It’s important to note that people are not eligible for full Social Security retirement benefits at age 65. Though you can start receiving them as early as age 62, the benefits will be reduced by a small percentage each month before your full retirement age, which is 67 for people born in 1960 and later. As a result, the average monthly benefit for a retired worker is higher, at $1,976. At the exact age of 65, your benefits will be reduced to 86.7% of the full amount. ” Of course, SS was never meant to the only source of retirement income. Starting as a postdoc, my employer and I both contributed to a 403b plan. Many folks ...

Casino hours

If it hasn’t already been obvious for the past three decades, the stock market is dominated by gamblers, not investors. And gamblers don’t keep banker’s hours, peeps.   “Nasdaq, one of the world's largest exchanges that is home to tech companies Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), is planning to submit paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday to roll out round-the-clock trading of stocks, as it looks to capitalize on a global demand for U.S. ​equities.” Well, not really round-the-clock. 23 hours a day, five days a week. But if equities are gonna compete with cryptocurrency, they’ll have to keep the casino open longer. Fool, money, parted, etc. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-nasdaq-seeks-extend-trading-211843764.html